Hindsight bias is feeling, after something happens, that it was obvious all along. It wasn't. Your memory quietly edits out the uncertainty you actually felt.
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If you believe you "always knew" a crash was coming, you also start believing you can predict the next one. That false confidence is expensive.
Ask ten people before an event what they expect, then ask them a year later what they expected. The later answers cluster much closer to what actually happened, every time.
Rewriting the past as obvious stops you from learning the real lesson, which is usually that the outcome was genuinely uncertain, not that you missed an obvious sign.
A written decision, dated before the outcome, is the only honest record. Memory alone will always flatter itself.
Hindsight edits memory to look obvious. A decision written down before the fact is the only honest check.
Do it today
Write one decision down, with your reason and today’s date.
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