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Season 8 · Your own plan · 8.1

Could you watch €10,000 become €7,000?

€10,000→€7,000a 30% fall
What it is

Risk, for a person, is less a number and more a question: could you watch your money fall by a third and not sell at the bottom?

The real testNot the maths. The sleep.
Why it matters

A mix that looks fine on paper is wrong for you if a real fall would make you sell in a panic. The right amount of risk is the amount you can actually sit through.

MOSTLY SHARES, BAD YEAR−30%MOSTLY BONDS, 2022−17%
The numbers

A mostly-shares portfolio can fall 30% or more in a bad year. A mostly-bonds one usually falls less, though in 2022, when rates jumped, it fell about 17%. It also grows slower over decades. Picking between them means picking the fall you could sit through.

Mid-crashThe worst time to decide
The trap

Answering this question calmly, before any money moves, gives a very different answer than answering it mid-crash. A limit set during a fall is usually the wrong one.

Your number−30% = how much, really?
Where you see it

Work out −30% on your own money today, while calm, and write down whether you could actually sit through it.

Try it
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