A high return with “no risk” means the risk is hidden somewhere.
Return is the pay for risk.
Five places for your money. Rank them by how safe they feel. Safest first.
Every return is pay for a risk you carry, and some risks pay nothing at all.
← Red LinesRed Line 16 of 48 The idea The numbers Where you see it Where it bends This game’s numbersHow strong the proof isBGood proof, with limits Where it comes from
Higher returns are the pay for carrying more risk. When an offer pays a lot and says it carries none, the risk is still there, just not on the label.
Bank deposits pay a little, with a State guarantee up to €100,000. Shares have paid more over decades, with falls of 30% or more on the way. 15% a year with no risk fits nowhere on that line.
Investment frauds tend to promise high, steady returns with no risk. A return that never wobbles is a warning, not a comfort.
Lower costs and real spreading are the rare free improvements: they raise what you keep without adding risk.
EU deposit guarantee, Directive 2014/49/EUMSCI Eurozone Government Bond Index factsheetMilliman, EuroZone Market Monitor, December 2022Statista, gold yearly performance by currencyStatista, the DAX’s worst yearsFortune, Wirecard files for insolvency (June 2020)
Over a century, riskier kinds of assets paid more, but inside the stock market the wildest shares paid less, so risk is not always rewarded.
- Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment Returns Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh & Mike Staunton, Princeton University Press, 2002
- The Cross-Section of Volatility and Expected Returns Andrew Ang, Robert J. Hodrick, Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, The Journal of Finance 61(1), 259-299, 2006
Checked 2 Nov 2026 · How we grade
- A Strong proof: Many good studies or long official data, from different teams or countries, point the same way.
- B Good proof, with limits: Solid studies agree on the direction, but the size varies, or the data covers few places or few kinds of people.
- C Mixed proof: Some good studies for, some against, or the evidence covers only part of the line.
- D Thin proof: Mostly one book’s argument, one survey or stories. It may be wise, but it has not been tested well.
- = True by the sums: It follows from arithmetic, so no study can overturn it. We still show what real data says.
Peter L. Bernstein, Against the Gods (1996). In our words, not quoted.
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