The best chances often come when most people are scared, and the worst when everyone is excited.
Calm when others panic, careful when they cheer.
You have €10,000 to put in. When? Go with your gut.
The scary days paid the most. The happy days paid the least.
← Red LinesRed Line 42 of 48 The idea The numbers How people do it Where it bends This game’s numbersHow strong the proof isBGood proof, with limits Where it comes from
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Red Line 42 of 48 · Shelf 7 · Your own mind
Red Line 42 of 48 · Shelf 7 · Your own mind
Calm when others panic, careful when they cheer.
Prices are lowest when people are scared and selling, and highest when they are excited and buying. The mood is loudest exactly when it is most wrong.
In the panic month the fund costs €30: €1,000 buys 33 shares. In the euphoric month it costs €58: the same €1,000 buys 17.
A fixed amount every month buys more shares when prices are low, automatically, without having to feel brave.
Being against the crowd is not a plan on its own.
Benzinga: March 2000 topStar-Bulletin / AP: March 2005AP: March 2009Fox Business: March 2014First Trust: January 2018Barchart: January 2023PBS / AP: March 2020Digital Look: March 2025
When investors are most excited, later returns tend to be low, in several data sets, but fear and cheer are hard to measure in the moment.
- Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns Robin Greenwood & Andrei Shleifer, Review of Financial Studies 27(3), 714-746, 2014
- Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, The Journal of Finance 61(4), 1645-1680, 2006
Checked 2 Nov 2026 · How we grade
- A Strong proof: Many good studies or long official data, from different teams or countries, point the same way.
- B Good proof, with limits: Solid studies agree on the direction, but the size varies, or the data covers few places or few kinds of people.
- C Mixed proof: Some good studies for, some against, or the evidence covers only part of the line.
- D Thin proof: Mostly one book’s argument, one survey or stories. It may be wise, but it has not been tested well.
- = True by the sums: It follows from arithmetic, so no study can overturn it. We still show what real data says.
Warren E. Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter (1986). In our words, not quoted.
See it in numbers: Herding · Best days (From Zero)
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