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Season 4 · When prices fall · 4.2

A 50% fall needs a 100% rise to undo it

−50%then+50%=−25%
What it is

Lose 50% of €100 and you have €50. Gain 50% back on that €50 and you have €75, not €100. A 50% fall needs a 100% rise to fully undo it.

the balancestartafter both moves
Why it happens

Percentages are not symmetric once money is involved. A rise has to work on a smaller starting amount after a fall, so it needs to be bigger just to break even.

AFTER −10%, NEEDS+11%AFTER −30%, NEEDS+43%AFTER −50%, NEEDS+100%
The numbers

A 10% fall needs an 11% rise to recover. A 30% fall needs a 43% rise. A 50% fall needs a full 100% rise. The deeper the fall, the harder the climb back.

−50% then +50%Still down 25%
The trap

Reading "down 50%, up 50%" as "back to even" is a natural but costly mistake. The two percentages are on different bases.

Fund historyWorst year: how big a rise to recover?
Where you see it

Check the worst year of any fund you hold, then work out what rise it needed afterwards to get whole again.

Try it
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