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Reading the economy’s numbers

A handful of numbers describe the economy. Each one comes with a date, an expectation and later corrections.

The main ones

Inflation (how fast prices rise), growth (GDP, how much the economy produced), and jobs (how many are out of work). Eurostat publishes a first estimate of euro area inflation at the end of each month and growth about a month after each quarter.

Expected versus actual

Before each number, forecasters publish what they expect. Markets react to the difference. Inflation of 2.5% can push prices down if 2.2% was expected, and up if 2.8% was.

First estimates change

The first numbers are estimates and are often revised later, sometimes a lot. A single month says little; the direction over several months says more.

Use them for context

These numbers explain what is happening around your money. They make poor signals for trading: by the time a number is out, prices have usually moved. Portfolio’s World page keeps ten years of each, so a month can be seen in proportion.

Key takeaways

  • Inflation, growth and jobs are the core three.
  • Markets react to the gap with expectations.
  • First estimates get revised; look at the trend.