In 2021 about 45% of the gas the EU bought from abroad came from Russia (IEA). In 2022 war began in Ukraine, about 2,000 km from Paris, and much of that gas stopped coming.
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Gas is hard to replace fast: new ships, pipes and contracts take months. When less gas arrives, every buyer bids for what is left, and the price runs far ahead of the gap.
European wholesale gas cost about €47 per MWh on average in 2021. In August 2022 it peaked at €311 (Banque de France). That is more than six times as much.
The market price went up more than six times. Household bills rose by about 30% in 2022 (Allianz Trade). Fixed contracts and price caps slow a shock down, on the way up and on the way down.
Allianz Trade put a home’s 2022 energy bill at about €3,400 in Germany, €2,800 in France and just under €2,000 in Italy and Spain. The smaller the budget, the bigger the bite.
Energy is priced on one big market: a war far away can raise the cost of heating your home.
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