The US held 23 presidential elections from 1932 to 2020. In 17 of those years, about 3 in 4, the S&P 500 ended the year higher (J.P. Morgan research).
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Over the years, prices follow profits, growth and inflation much more than one vote. Whoever is elected, companies keep working and earning.
Election years averaged about 6.2% a year, against 8.7% for all years since 1932. A little lower, not a disaster.
Elections do bring a bit more noise. Swings averaged about 16.5% in election years and 15.3% in other years. The worry tends to grow before the vote and fade once the result is known.
Next big election, at home or abroad: write down what you feel like doing. Read it again a week later. Most urges look smaller by then.
Elections bring a few weeks of noise. Over years, profits and growth move prices more than votes.
Do it today
Write what you’d do after big news; reread in a week.
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