Big news comes out and the price barely moves. Nothing is broken. It moved already, in the weeks before, when people started to expect the news.
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Prices are set by millions of people guessing the future. When a guess becomes likely, they act on it now. On the day, only the surprise part is left to move.
On 10 September 2026 the ECB raised its rate by 0.25 points. In France, fixed mortgage rates had gone from 3.44% to about 3.54% before it. In Germany, they did not move on the day.
Fast is not the same as right. Prices can be wrong, and a few investors have beaten the market for decades. But news you just read is old news to the price.
Next time a headline sounds big, open the chart of the weeks before it. Often the move is already there, and acting on the headline means acting late.
Prices move on what people expect. On the day of the news, only the surprise is left.
Do it today
Next headline: is this already in the price?
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